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Marzo 13, 2007

La guerra perdida

Hablan los pesimistas y/o realistas. Un grupo de expertos coincide en sostener que la guerra de Irak está perdida. "Incluso si tuviéramos un millón de hombres para enviar allí, sería ya demasiado tarde", dice el general retirado Tony McPeak.

Richard Clarke: All the things they say will happen are already happening. Iraq is already a base for terrorists; there is already a civil war. We've got 150,000 troops there now and we can't stop it.

Nir Rosen: There is no best-case scenario for Iraq. It's complete anarchy now. No family is untouched by kidnappings, murders, ethnic cleansing -- everybody lives in a constant state of terror. Leaving aside Kurdistan, (...) you can get killed for being a Sunni, for being a Shia, for being educated, for being part of the former regime, for being part of the current regime.

Michael Scheuer: Even in the best-case scenario, the disaster we're seeing now is nothing compared to the disaster that we'll see after we leave. The real issue here is American interest: The longer we stay, the more people we get killed. I don't think the longer we stay, the better we make Iraq. Probably the reverse.

Tony McPeak: You have to hope that Iraq devolves into a federal state with three strong regional governments. But that has its downsides: The Turks would go berserk. (...) And if Iraq devolves into three separate "stans," then it's going to be pretty tough for Sunnistan not to provide a retirement home for Al Qaeda agents.

Paul Pillar: The president made it sound like Osama bin Laden is poised to march into Baghdad and take up residence in one of Saddam's old palaces and rule this terrorist state. Nothing of the sort is possible -- even as a worst-case scenario. It is true that five years from now, the same people honing their skills in Anbar province may form the cell that will try to pull off another 9/11. But that's going to happen regardless of what we do.

Por cierto, éstas son las previsiones optimistas. Hay que leer también las alternativas más probables. Y sólo echándole mucho valor, los peores escenarios posibles.

Posted by Iñigo at Marzo 13, 2007 11:35 PM

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Totalmente off topic pero bastante ajustado al tema del blog:

Posted by: jose angel at Marzo 14, 2007 01:26 AM

Inyigo, como puede ser que tu version sobre lo que pasa en Iraq sea tan diferente de la de otro analista de los EE.UU. como Barcepundit? Y no me vale lo de que el es un neocon porque tambien pone enlaces a noticias. Hay algo que me pierdo y las 2 versiones no son tan diferentes? Por que no organizais un debate blog a blog sobre el tema?

Posted by: Jordi at Marzo 15, 2007 12:03 AM