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Septiembre 17, 2008

Magia negra

Al final la Reserva Federal de EEUU no encontró más apostadores que sacaran con sus fichas de colores a AIG de la bancarrota y tuvo que poner 85.000 millones de dólares. Otra nacionalización forzada por las circunstancias (cuando lo hace EEUU el FMI no protesta) que bien podría concluir en una liquidación ordenada de la compañía.

Nadie quería que AIG se hundiera en cuestión de horas. Hubiera sido como quitar los cimientos de un rascacielos, según decían algunos.

En realidad, AIG era algo más que la mayor aseguradora del mundo. Al igual que otras empresas laminadas por esta crisis, la clave vuelve a estar en la apuesta por instrumentos financieros que han contaminado a todo el sistema por su elevado nivel de riesgo. Atentos al uso de una palabra reveladora:

What frightened Fed and Treasury officials was not simply the prospect of another giant corporate bankruptcy, but A.I.G.’s role as an enormous provider of esoteric financial insurance contracts to investors who bought complex debt securities.

¿Esotéricos? Cuando se utilizan palabras como ésta en una sección de economía es porque hemos vuelto a los tiempos de la alquimia.

La ficha del día que se tambalea hoy es HBOS, la mayor entidad hipotecaria del Reino Unido. ¿Cuál será la de mañana?

Posted by Iñigo at Septiembre 17, 2008 12:11 PM

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Comments

Hablando de "nacionalizaciones", me ha recordado a esta entrada de krugman del otro día usando otro término:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/08/deprivatization/

Un saludo

Posted by: gd at Septiembre 17, 2008 01:06 PM

cosas útiles:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul128.html

Ron Paul in the House Financial Services Committee, September 10, 2003

(…) This explicit promise by the Treasury to bail out GSEs [government sponsored enterprises] in times of economic difficulty helps the GSEs attract investors who are willing to settle for lower yields than they would demand in the absence of the subsidy. Thus, the line of credit distorts the allocation of capital. More importantly, the line of credit is a promise on behalf of the government to engage in a huge unconstitutional and immoral income transfer from working Americans to holders of GSE debt.(…)

Ironically, by transferring the risk of a widespread mortgage default, the government increases the likelihood of a painful crash in the housing market. This is because the special privileges granted to Fannie and Freddie have distorted the housing market by allowing them to attract capital they could not attract under pure market conditions. As a result, capital is diverted from its most productive use into housing. This reduces the efficacy of the entire market and thus reduces the standard of living of all Americans.

(…) Perhaps the Federal Reserve can stave off the day of reckoning by purchasing GSE debt and pumping liquidity into the housing market, but this cannot hold off the inevitable drop in the housing market forever. In fact, postponing the necessary, but painful market corrections will only deepen the inevitable fall. The more people invested in the market, the greater the effects across the economy when the bubble bursts."


http://austrianeconomists.typepad.com/weblog/2008/09/who-can-fix-thi.html

"Who Can Fix This?" de Peter Boettke

F. A. Hayek once remarked that the unfortunate fate of the economist was to be called upon more than any other scientists for his opinion on public policy only to have that advice dismissed almost as soon as it is uttered. If an economist of the skill of F. A. Hayek had his words dismissed, then it should be no surprise when those who are his less skilled followers don't even get an initial hearing among the power elite. But part of that reason is that the message that Hayek and pre-Keynesian economists offered was one that challenged the presumption that whoever the President was could be in control of a complex economic system. An individual or a party (either one) cannot fix our economic problems.

Instead, government must instead get out of the way of market adjustments. Government is NOT a corrective. More often than not, it is the source (as in this case) of our economic difficulties. No bailouts, eliminate regulations, certainly no nationalizations, no priming of the pump with easy money, just allow firms to be weeded out that made imprudent decisions, allow capital to be reallocated, and permit prices to adjust to the new market realities.

Posted by: Phil at Septiembre 17, 2008 07:44 PM

Un ensayo de Nassim Nicholas Taleb sobre el mal uso de los instrumentos estadísticos por agentes de los mercados financieros:
THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS [9.15.08]
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html

Saludos

Posted by: Goseri at Septiembre 17, 2008 10:04 PM